Macro calendar & event risk
FOMC, CPI, payrolls and other high-impact releases, how far crypto has historically swung on each, and a geopolitical headline radar.
Will my stop survive the release?
Historical reaction to the last releases of each kind, measured on 5-minute candles from the last price before the release. Ordinary day = the same clock time 24 h earlier.
Measuring past releases…
Economic calendar
Times in your time zone (UTC).
The live calendar feed is unavailable — showing the official US schedule only.
2026-10-02
- 12:30USDHighNon-farm payrollsofficial schedule
2026-10-14
- 12:30USDHighCPI inflationofficial schedule
Geopolitics & policy radar
Geopolitics has no schedule. We track market-relevant world headlines and flag when their pace spikes — a cue to widen stops or cut size, not a direction call.
Normal headline pace: 6 in 6 h (usual ~9.6).
- Ethiopia and Tigray accuse each of launching offensives, fuelling fears of new warBBC World·Sep 23, 13:17 UTCConflict
- As Xi meets Trump, who’s winning their trade war?Al Jazeera·Sep 23, 12:20 UTCConflictTrade & tariffs
- How Trump’s Tariffs Helped Send Barbie-Maker Mattel’s Stock Back To The 1990s - Trade BrainsGoogle News·Sep 23, 11:34 UTCTrade & tariffs
- Banque du Caire IPO seen unaffected by US sanctions proposal on Banque Misr's UAE branches - ZawyaGoogle News·Sep 23, 10:51 UTCSanctions
- Iran denies dropping preconditions amid ‘very productive’ three-hour UN talks in New YorkThe Guardian·Sep 23, 10:41 UTCEnergy
- Sanctions On India Cause Severs Damage To Global Markets, JP Morgan CEO Warns America - indtoday.comGoogle News·Sep 23, 09:38 UTCSanctions
- US senator condemns Netanyahu as a ‘chronic liar’ ahead of UNGA visitAl Jazeera·Sep 23, 08:44 UTCConflict
- Major Czech Energy Suppliers Raise Fixed Tariffs for New Customers Amid Wholesale Market Volatility - streamlinefeed.co.keGoogle News·Sep 23, 07:51 UTCTrade & tariffs
- Gold Steadies as Crude Falls; Markets Track Fed & Geopolitics - HDFC SkyGoogle News·Sep 23, 06:45 UTCEnergy
- US and Iran hold first talks since June after Trump's 'annihilation' threatBBC World·Sep 23, 06:12 UTCConflict
- Reports of violence against women in Gaza surge, UN agency findsBBC World·Sep 23, 05:02 UTCConflict
- US Treasury escalates Iran sanctions, threatening secondary penalties as markets weigh de-dollarisation risks - VT MarketsGoogle News·Sep 23, 01:34 UTCConflictSanctionsPolicy
- ‘Hopefully America won’t punish India’: Jamie Dimon on 100% tariff threat over Russian oil - FirstpostGoogle News·Sep 23, 01:32 UTCTrade & tariffs
- EU tariffs push BYD into Hungary, with 3 more European factories planned - The Cool DownGoogle News·Sep 23, 00:52 UTCTrade & tariffs
- Iran suspends flights to Baghdad, Muscat, Azerbaijan amid new US sanctions - Crypto BriefingGoogle News·Sep 22, 23:20 UTCSanctions
- EU agrees to lift sanctions on Russian oligarchs Usmanov, Fridman - Markets & Companies - Business - Ahram OnlineGoogle News·Sep 22, 23:14 UTCSanctions
- India warns US sanctions bill targeting Russian oil buyers could damage bilateral ties and disrupt global energy markets - Energies MediaGoogle News·Sep 22, 22:11 UTCSanctions
- Dimon warns US over Russian oil tariffs - Ahmedabad MirrorGoogle News·Sep 22, 21:42 UTCTrade & tariffs
- US to build two military bases in Greenland under new deal with DenmarkBBC World·Sep 22, 21:36 UTCConflict
- Iran and US have held talks on sidelines of UN summit, says Donald TrumpThe Guardian·Sep 22, 21:21 UTCEnergy
- Nasdaq, S&P 500 Futures Mixed As Oil Surge, Trump Tariffs Cloud Market Outlook: Why INTC, TSLA, SPCX, ORCL, SLS Are In Focus - StocktwitsGoogle News·Sep 22, 21:16 UTCTrade & tariffs
- How Ceuta, football and Israel are shaping Morocco's electionBBC World·Sep 22, 20:59 UTCPolicy
- EU Renews Russia Sanctions, Removes Usmanov and Fridman from List - globalbankingandfinance.comGoogle News·Sep 22, 20:33 UTCSanctions
- Tariffs could reshape Canada’s rental market, report warns - RED FM CanadaGoogle News·Sep 22, 20:26 UTCTrade & tariffs
- JP Morgan CEO urges Washington to rethink Russian oil tariffs: 'Don't end up punishing India' - Moneycontrol.comGoogle News·Sep 22, 19:25 UTCTrade & tariffs
How this is measured
Release dates come from the Federal Reserve (FOMC, statement at 14:00 New York time) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI and payrolls, 08:30 New York time); the current week's full calendar with forecasts comes from the ForexFactory feed. For each of the last 16 releases of a kind we take the last Binance price before the release and record how far price travelled up and down on 5-minute candles over the first hour and the first four hours. The ordinary-day baseline is the same measurement at the same clock time 24 hours earlier. These are descriptions of risk, not forecasts: they say how big the swing tends to be, not which way the next one goes.