From the announcement radar · live data
What happens to price after an Upbit warning flag (2023–2026 data)
The numbers in this article are computed live from our record of exchange announcements and change as new events are priced. Latest event included: October 16, 2026.
Upbit, Korea's largest exchange, marks a coin with an “investment caution” flag when it sees a problem: collapsing volume, missing disclosures, a change in the team or the token supply. The flag opens a review period. At the end Upbit either lifts it or ends trading support for the coin.
No predictions — just the record. Our radar has stored every Upbit caution notice since Aug 2023, with the coin's price on the same market at the moment of the notice and 1 hour, 24 hours and 7 days later. That is 67 measured coin-events (one notice can name several coins). Every figure below is a median, recalculated as new notices are priced. We use the median, not the average, because one short squeeze can drag an average far away from what the typical coin did.
The short answer
The median flagged coin was at -1.5% one hour after the notice, -3.3% after 24 hours and -8.6% after 7 days. 33% of flagged coins traded higher 24 hours later, and 31% a week later.
The median hides a wide spread. A week after the notice, the worst quarter of coins was at -20.5% or lower, while the best quarter was at +0.6% or higher. A flag is not a uniform haircut; it is a distribution with a long tail.
| After | n | Worst quarter at or below | Median | Best quarter at or above | Share higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 67 | -3.8% | -1.5% | +0.7% | 31% |
| 24 hours | 66 | -9.3% | -3.3% | +1.3% | 33% |
| 7 days | 62 | -20.5% | -8.6% | +0.6% | 31% |
Year by year
The reaction has not been constant. The table splits the same notices by the year they were published. Small years are marked: a median of a handful of coins is an anecdote, not a statistic.
| Year | n | 1 h | 24 h | 7 d | Higher after 24 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023fewer than 5 — no median | 4 | — | — | — | — |
| 2024small sample | 8 | 0.0% | -0.9% | -3.3% | 38% |
| 2025small sample | 15 | -2.5% | -6.1% | -8.6% | 33% |
| 2026 | 40 | -1.5% | -3.7% | -13.6% | 31% |
What happened to the flagged coins afterwards
Price is half of the story; the other half is how the review ended. Of the 74 distinct coins Upbit flagged in our record, 46 (62%) later got an Upbit delisting notice, 7 (9%) had the caution lifted, and 21 are still flagged or have no resolution in our record. Where a coin was delisted, the delisting notice came a median of 15 days after the first flag.
Read this with care. Our archive is more complete for recent years, so an older lifted notice we failed to capture shows up here as “no resolution”, and recent flags simply haven't had time to resolve. The delisted share describes the past record; it is not the probability that the next flagged coin is delisted.
When the caution is lifted
The opposite notice is much rarer. Across 10 measured lifted cautions, the median move was +1.8% after 24 hours and -2.5% after 7 days. With a sample this small, treat it as a description of what happened, not as a pattern. The Upbit caution research page keeps both groups side by side, with Bithumb's equivalent notices for comparison.
How to read this
- Compare the 1-hour median (-1.5%) with the 7-day median (-8.6%) before deciding whether the reaction is “done”: the record shows how much of the move came after the first hour.
- Watch the outcome, not just the flag. A delisting notice for the same coin is a separate event with its own record — see what Binance delistings did to price.
- New flags appear on the exchange announcements radar as they are published. Check liquidity and trend on the screener before acting on any of them.
How this is measured
Every announcement from the exchange's public feed is stored with the coin's price on the same market (Binance or Bybit, spot first) at the moment it was published, then 1 hour, 24 hours and 7 days later. Brand-new tokens whose trading started after the announcement are left out of the medians: their first price is an opening auction, not a reaction to the news. One coin-event is one ticker in one announcement; moves beyond ±1000% are treated as bad data and left out, and groups of fewer than 5 coins show no median. Older announcements come from the exchanges' archives and are priced from historical candles.
Data and tools behind this article
How the price moved after past announcements doesn't predict the next one. Listing and delisting moves are fast and often reverse. Not financial advice. This article describes past events. It is not a trading signal or a promise of profit.